Still No Election Expected.....

The recent change in the polls which has the Liberals and Conservatives in a virtual tie for support has a few wags talking election, but I would be very surprised if that were to happen. I do agree with Andrew Potter who writes in his Macleans blog that with Parliament prorogued and no-one to yell at, the Liberals have turned the corner into a more mature opposition and the present poll results are indicative of that change. (I suspect a change of personnel in the leader's office has something to do with this change as well, but whatever the reasons, the result is clear.) Potter rightly observes:

But when everything is a scandal, then nothing is, and it didn’t take long for the public to conclude that the Liberals had no idea what they were doing. What the prorogation has done is remove the party from the bullying, reactive and optics-centred playground of question period. Under the banner “The Liberals are Working,” the party dutifully showed up in Ottawa on the previously scheduled date for the return of Parliament, and since then it’s been a blizzard of panels, conferences, and media scrums. With no one to yell at, the Liberals have been forced to take the initiative, and they have used the opportunity to quietly but methodically advance their own agenda.

That being said, I don't expect the Liberals to try to convert their new found momentum into an election campaign. There is no reason to expect that if they do a rerun of "Mr. Harper - your time is up" routine, their plunge in the polls will mirror that of last fall. They are being supported now precisely because they are being seen to be constructive and not simply self-serving.

What poll interpreters generally fail to properly account for is the framing of the question: "If an election were held today...." That is always an impossible question for even if an election were called today, there are six weeks of campaigning that will follow. And the campaign does matter. The adults in charge of the Liberal operation today understand that better than most. They know that there present momentum is hardly enough to overcome the financial and organizational advantages still enjoyed by the Conservatives. They also read the polls regarding leadership confidence which shows Mr. Harper still in a comfortable lead.

One other consideration. The Conservatives took a hit from the prorogation and perception that they were avoiding certain controversial issues. The Liberals to their credit have converted that into an advantage. The flip side of this coin is that the Conservatives do have an opportunity to redefine themselves and their agenda with a throne speech and budget in a few weeks. They also will undoubtedly at least refine (if not rethink)their strategy in defending on the controversial files that occupied Parliament before their departure. One of the interesting questions to watch when Parliament resumes if the Liberals will revert to their "everything is a scandal" opposition or whether they will continue on their present path of more constructive policy-building. In a Westminster system, it isn't really an either-or proposition but rather finding the right balance.

Election or not - the spring session does promise some interesting times.