Interesting Way to Start....

Making news this morning are two Calgary area MLAs who have decided to leave the PC caucus and Premier Stelmach's Progressive Conservative government to sit as part of the caucus of the WildRose Alliance. (For those not familiar with the Wildrose Alliance and its recent rise to prominence in Alberta politics, my October 5th column in the Globe and Mail provides a bit of background.

While polls that put the Wildrose Alliance in a position to form government may make news, there are still significant challenges facing the party. I will be watching three in particular.

1. Defining an alternative. It is easy to criticize, utilize every misstep of the government for partisan advantage, and earn the support of those disenchanted with the government. That earns poll standings but not solid enough support to translate into votes on election day. While the timing is hardly urgent now, defining clear policy alternatives that don't simply play to the crowd will be an important part of the WRA development, not simply because the party needs credible policy, but to brand the party as an alternative and not simply an opposition.

2. Building Government-ready credibility. The most significant determinant of how the WRA will fare in the next election are the candidates that they will field. While Danielle Smith has a lot of appeal as a leader, she is going to need to be able to show a credible and electable team going into the next election. My sense is that this is her biggest challenge, both positively and negatively. A weak team is going to make momentum-stopping mistakes and reinforce the upstart amateur image. A strong team is going to be decisive for many voters as to whether they are prepared to take a risk on a new party forming government.

3. Building a coalition. The political center is different in Alberta than in other parts of the country, but there are still several camps whose objectives and ideals are not always compatible. Ideological libertarians, Alberta firsters, Chamber of Commerce type fiscal conservatives, social conservatives, populists -- there are many camps and finding a way to develop a coherent program that builds a winning coalition from these various groups, giving enough to keep each loyal while not becoming beholden (or perceived to be beholden) to one at the expense of the others, are delicate challenges.

While Ms. Smith and her team have her work cut out for her, the benefit of incumbency and the future of the WRA rest as much in the hands of Mr. Stelmach and the Conservatives (and the patience they may not show with their leader - this is the party that kicked out Ralph Klein when he was still Premier) as what the WRA does.

If nothing else, it will make for very interesting Alberta politics over the next 18 months.