So the Conservatives win two ridings they did not win in the last election. The Bloc and NDP each hold onto one riding they did have in the last election. Does it mean anything? In a limited sense, yes -- just like the aroma and taste of your morning coffee makes you feel good. In the long run, No. Twenty minutes later you roll up the rim, discover that the only carry forward of the coffee is a "Play Again" and you carry on with the day's business.
A quick analysis of the numbers (with the current totals based on the Election Canada website reporting all but eight polls in the BC race) compared with the previous election (for which I relied on the numbers prepared by punditsguide.ca) and it would appear that all of the parties except the Conservatives declined their percentage of the overall vote compared with the last federal election.
Conservative% 41.92 2008 %: 22.6 Difference 19.31558534
Liberal% 5.94 2008 %: 14.1 Difference -8.159797687
Bloc % 20.47 2008 %: 24.1 Difference -3.626538084
NDP % 18.36 2008 %: 19.3 Difference -0.943292305
The significant increase in the Conservative vote has to be discounted by virtue of the fact that the Nova Scotia riding was one by an ex-Conservative Bill Casey, votes which did not count last time in the Conservative column even if they were basically Conservative voters. That being said, winning back such a riding -- especially in a bielection -- is an accomplishment. Winning another riding in Quebec is always a feather in the cap. None of the opposition parties can escape the fact that their share of the popular vote in these ridings went down (however slightly in the case of the NDP, but it is still a negative sign) in the year gone by. Governments are not supposed to do well in by-elections. Hard to see, however, how to spin this in any other way than favourably for the Conservatives.
Still, that being said, I am not sure it really means that much in the longer term. Like a favourable poll, it is a snapshot of a situation today, but given that the next election is not being called today, and even if it was, the campaign between the election call and the votes cast will still be determinative.
About all you can say about these results is that these, in combination with a loonie and change, will buy you a cup of Tim Horton's coffee in the morning - nothing more. A few sips and the coffee is gone, and a few days, and these by-elections will also be forgotten. Still, enjoyable while it lasts and there is little doubt that the Conservatives are enjoying their coffee a bit more than their opponents this morning, whatever spin they may be putting on it.
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