An interesting column in yesterday's Globe along with various Ottawa conversations this week prompted a few airplane reflections this week as we try to game play the Ottawa chess game over the longer term.
The combination of the polls, Liberal infighting in Quebec (which must deliver more seats for the Libs if they are to have any chance at power), and the too great risk that the Conservatives will be punished for prompting an election that at this time, would only benefit them and the Bloc, make it a fairly safe bet that next years budget is the next time the election talk will be serious again. Four by-elections are being called, none of which are seats that were held by Conservatives last time, and in at least two of them, the Conservatives have at least an outside chance. Good opportunity to test the waters and if the Conservatives increase their numbers from last time and perhaps even gain a seat or two, it will provide further confirmation to Mr. Harper.
The strategic thinkers in the other parties are going to be faced with a dilemma. If the Conservatives put in a "stay the course budget" in late January (perfectly defensible one year after the last one), voting down the budget will mean an election during the Olympics - not generally seen to be a welcome prospect for anyone and likely to cause voters to be more grumpy with the parties that caused it. On the other hand, if the Conservatives succeed in getting another budget passed, the narrative of Stephen Harper not being able to work with opposition parties and being a mean guy who needs to be replaced starts looking ridiculous.
This all sets up the narrative that Michael Bliss referenced yesterday in his Globe column, where the Conservatives might be in a position to become the Natural Governing Party in Canada. There are lots of ifs, buts, and what-ifs to factor in that I have not mentioned but my guess is Stephen Harper would be quite satisfied with the legacy of having been the Prime Minister who took a divided right to a Natural Governing Party in this country.
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Hey, nothing against the good professor, but this seems awfully premature. If it comes true, I suppose we'll have to hail his prescience, but this is only one possible outcome. The more interesting question, for my purposes, is what value there might be in participating in a "natural governing party". Plenty of upside, for sure, but not without risk...
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